Between 7 and 8 December, CLIMAX Participants will meet at Instituto Nacional de Meteorología (INMET), to discuss progress made during the project 1st year and to plan the 2nd year activities. Focus will be made in assessing the progress in the two cases studies of co-design and co-production of climate information in the agricultural sector in Argentina and the electric sector in Brazil. AGENDA - pdf
TAGS: meeting, general
The objective of the workshop is to promote the interaction among the research groups within CLIMAX-WP2 regarding investigations about regional climate variability and predictability and development of climate products and tools. Special focus is made on subseasonal and seasonal variability and predictability.
Meeting organizers: Iracema Cavalcanti and Caio Coelho (CPTEC/INPE, Brazil), Carolina Vera (CIMA/CONICET-UBA-UUMI-/IFAECI/CNRS, Argentina-France. AGENDA - pdf
TAGS: WP2, understanding, prediction, monitoring, meeting
The purpose of the activiy was to train the personnel of the SMARA in the resources and products available at ClimAr portal. The assistants learnt about the predictability sources in the subseasonal scale and the use of the sub-seasonal forecasts and monitoring tools. Marisol Osman and Mariano Alvarez, members of CLIMAX project, were on charge of the this capacity building activity giving seminars and advising on lab activities.
TAGS: subseasonal, prediction, Marisol Osman, Mariano Alvarez, dissemination, course, capacity building
Between 25 and 28 of October a series of meetings and activities were held oriented to strengthen and expand the CLIMAX Bermejo Network, in which different actors participated: Resistencia SMN , Production Ministry of Chaco, APA:Provincial Water Administration - Chaco , INTA: Las Palmas & Colonia Benítez . The priority lines of work were established, and a calendar of activities was defined for the year 2017 and 2018.
TAGS: dissemination, co-production, Bermejo, Argentina, agriculture
A first prototype of a climate information to underping agriculture production in Departamento Bermejo, Chaco, Argentina was developed. It is based on the outcomes of the CLIMAX-Argentina Workshops of Interdisciplinary Co-production. The application includes meteorological and climate information from Weather Services and other institutions. Access to Bermejo App: https://goo.gl/v6wb5E
TAGS: subseasonal, product, prediction, dissemination, co-production, Bermejo, Argentina, agriculture
The First South American School of Prediction and Sub-seasonal Forecasting was held. The objective was to train the assistants in the predictability sources in this scale and the use of the sub-seasonal forecasts, from their obtaining to the evaluation of their predictive capacity and their levels of uncertainty. The activity was oriented to forecasters of the Meteorological and Hydrological Services of South America and counted on the sponsorship of the World Meteorological Organization among other institutions. Marisol Osman, member of CLIMAR and CLIMAX projects, participated as a coach providing a talk and a workshop on the sources of predictability in South America and trained attendees in the use of the portal climar.cima.fcen.uba.ar .
TAGS: subseasonal, prediction, Marisol Osman, dissemination, course
The workshop was oriented to reflect on the climate of the region -main climate variables of relevance, rainfall regime, ENSO-, and the interpretation of climate products: weekly and quarterly scales of forecasts, the concept of probability. The same had the participation and support of the AER-INTA Las Palmas, EFA, Undersecretary of Family Farming, Mercado Campesino, Consortium 9, Municipality of La Leonesa. More Info
TAGS: workshop, dissemination, co-production, Argentina, agriculture
The DIVAR Group from CIMA/CONICET-UBA and UMI-IFAECI/CNRS implemented an experimental portal for disseminating the tools under development for monitoring and predicting climate on subseasonal timecales. The portal facilitates that users accessing the information can directly leave their opinions and comments about how to improve them. This initiative is being developed in collaboration with the Argentina National Meteorological Service. http://climar.cima.fcen.uba.ar/
TAGS: subseasonal, prediction, monitoring, dissemination, Argentina
The prediction skill of subseasonal forecast models is evaluated for a strong and long-lasting heat wave occurred in December 2013 over Southern South America. Reforecasts from two models participating in the WCRP/WWRP Subseasonal to Seasonal project, the Bureau of Meteorology POAMA and Beijing Climate Center model BCC-CPS were considered to evaluate their skill in forecasting temperature and circulation anomalies during that event. The POAMA reforecast of 32-member ensemble size, initialized every five days, and BCC-CPS reforecast of 4-member ensemble size for the same date of POAMA plus the previous 4 days were considered. Weekly ensemble-mean forecasts were computed with leadtimes from 2 days up to 24 days every 5 days. Weekly anomalies were calculated for observations from 13th of December to 31st of December 2013. Anomalies for both observations and reforecast were calculated with respect to their own climatology. Results show that the ensemble mean warm anomalies forecasted for week 1 and 2 of the heat wave resulted more similar to the observations for the POAMA model, especially for longer leads. The BCC-CPS performed better for leads shorter than 7 (14) for week 1 (2). For week 3 the BCC-CPS outperformed the POAMA model, particularly at shorter leads, locating more accurately the maxima of the anomalies. In a probabilistic approach, POAMA predicted with a higher chance than BCC-CPS the excess of the upper tercile of temperature anomalies for almost every week and lead time. The forecast of the circulation anomalies over South America could be used to explain the location of the highest temperature anomalies. In summary, for this case, models skill in forecasting surface temperature in a context of a heat wave resulted moderate at lead times longer than the fortnight. However, this study is limited to model-to-model analysis and a multi-model ensemble strategy might increase the skill. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-017-3582-4
TAGS: subseasonal, prediction, Marisol Osman, Mariano Alvarez, article
The purpose of this study is to assess the ability of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) models in reproducing the variability and change of the austral summer precipitation observed in Southeastern South America (SESA) along the 20th century and beginning of the 21st. Models show a reduction in mean precipitation biases and inter-model dispersion, and a significant improvement in the representation of the leading pattern of precipitation interannual variability (EOF1), in comparison with Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 3 (CMIP3) models. Changes of the EOF1 activity in the present climate, as represented by both, climate model simulations and rainfall gridded datasets, evidence an increase of the frequency of EOF1 positive events (associated with positive precipitation anomalies in SESA and negative ones in the South Atlantic Convergence Zone) and a decrease of the frequency of EOF1 negative events. Nevertheless there are still large uncertainties due to model differences and the internal variability of the climate system. In order to reduce the impact of model uncertainties, an ensemble of the climate simulations that represent better the features associated with EOF1 activity was built, regardless to which model they correspond. The results obtained with this ensemble confirm that largest precipitation trends in SESA are those represented by climate simulations associated with an increase (decrease) of EOF1 positives (negative) events. It was also found that positive precipitation trends in SESA resulted from climate simulations forced by anthropogenic sources are the largest and significantly different from those from simulations forced by natural sources only, which are not significantly different from zero. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.5031/full
TAGS: understanding, Leandro Díaz, climate change, Carolina Vera, article
This first meeting was an open call to all productive profiles, and it had emphasis on small horticultural producers and ranchers. The objective of this first workshop was to work on the strategies to face the regional climate and the usual local monitoring tools. The workshop had the support and institutional participation of: Escuela de Familia Agrícola (EFA), AER-INTA Las Palmas, INTA Colonia Benítez, as well as the following local organizations: Consorcios Rurales, Mercado Campesino & Feria Franca de Las Palmas. More Info
TAGS: workshop, dissemination, co-production, Argentina, agriculture
In November, the Brazilian component of the project met to harmonize the first year WP´s work and collaborations between Brazilian and European institutions. Workplans for the first year of implementation were developed as well as discussions on co-production with participation of local actors as INMET, OSN, CEPAGRI, CPTEC.
The discussion provided suggestions about better ways for displaying climate related products and tools. The Agenda of the meeting can be found at: Agenda-PDF
TAGS: understanding, prediction, monitoring, meeting, co-production, brazil
The kick-off meeting of the CLIMAX Project was held at the headquarters of the National Meteorological Service (SMN) Argentina between 11 and 16 October 2016. The aim of the meeting was to provide a discussion framework among the CLIMAX participants for the planning of the activities associated with the project WPs.
The summaries of the talks can be found at the following link: Agenda &
In particular, two integrated efforts were agreed to pursue: i) a co-production of climate information for the electric sector in Brazil, and ii) a co-production of climate information for the agriculture sector in Argentina.
TAGS: understanding, prediction, monitoring, meeting, general, co-production